What technology writer can resist making a few predictions for the New Year? I sure can’t. Gazing into my “silicon ball”, here’s what I see for 2004, along with some advice.

Microsoft will release another Service Pack for Windows XP, and will tout its increased resistance to worms, viruses and the like. Shortly thereafter, a worm or virus will appear that will cut right through the Service Pack like a warm knife through that stick of butter you left on the counter top, and we’ll have a “summer of discontent” just like 2003. By the way, Microsoft has announced they will no longer support Windows 98. If you want to get in on 2004’s latest and greatest worms, viruses, fatal errors, spyware, adware, et al, you’ll need to pony up for XP (and probably need to upgrade your computer as well). But, hey, that’s part of the “charm” of PC ownership. Maybe when Microsoft releases their “Longhorn” upgrade in 2005 (2006?), they’ll get it right, but you can bet your boots Longhorn will require a major hardware upgrade (CHA-CHING!), and that “value priced” disposable PC you bought through Wally World or Dell this year (if it’s still working in 2005) will be woefully inadequate.

In stark contrast, Mac users are installing the latest Mac OS X “Panther” upgrade on four-year-old Macs, and they run FASTER because of it. What a concept! Oh, and did I mention there’s no such thing as worms, viruses, spyware, or adware on a Mac?

Fighting spam will continue to be an everyday ordeal, even with improved filters (both on user’s machines and on mail servers) and despite Congressional intervention. Along with spam, there will be many more scams coming your way, trying to get at your financial data through web pages and emails masquerading as legitimate, trusted web portals like eBay, Amazon and Earthlink.

Key-fob-sized USB memory “sticks” will become the floppy disk of the new millennium. As lower cost capacity increases, you will be able to carry around not just photos and documents, but your entire computing identity as well. Software will be developed to enable you to plug your stick into any computer, do your work, save it, and move on. Today, you can install a complete Mac OS X operating system on an iPod, connect it to a Mac via FireWire, and boot the Mac from the iPod.

Despite the hype, neither the Windows Media Center PC nor the Tablet PC will take off. What will take off, however, are digital video recorders that will take the place of the family VCR. The battle will be between hard-drive-based and DVD-based systems. Although DVD recorders offer permanence, there’s the added cost of DVD media. As hard drive storage prices fall, it may be hard for DVD-based systems to compete. As with any consumer electronic device, remember that what’s hot today will rapidly be replaced with something hotter, probably before you’ve got your “latest, greatest” gizmo paid off.

Now for some advice for the New Year – you don’t even have to buy my book or try my diet. It’s free!

Tired of your PC diet of worms and viruses? If you’re buying a new family computer, get a Mac. Better yet, get a Mac laptop. You’ll love the freedom, and with an iBook or PowerBook you won’t be shorted any of the digital video, photo, and music capabilities of a desktop.

If you live where they’re available, get DSL or cable modem internet service (and then be sure to enable your Firewall). Life’s too short to dial up.

Here’s wishing you the best computing year ever!

© 2004 Peter F. Zimowski