Last time I began my eulogy for the DVD as we know it by listing what I believe to be it’s “five causes of death”. To review, they were: the size of our digital media collections, the plunging price of digital storage, high-speed data transfer (both into and within the home), the distribution of movies and TV shows via the internet, and the coming of the high-definition DVD. No single symptom alone will bring about the DVD’s demise. Rather, a perfect storm is developing. You may have heard this storm referred to in the past as “digital convergence”. It’s already clobbered the CD, and it has its eyes set squarely on the DVD.

“Digital convergence”, loosely translated, describes the coming together of the five causes of DVD death I’ve described above to replace the physical delivery of entertainment media (via CD or DVD) with electronic delivery, through the home’s broadband internet connection. The media is then managed by the home computer (or combination of computers, as every computer on the network can share the other’s content). The computer also replaces the CD player for music, the DVD player for watching movies, delivers family photos in grand scale, and even the replaces the VCR (or TiVO, for that matter) for recording TV shows.

Here’s what the digitally converged home of the (not so distant) future will look like. A high-speed internet connection runs into the home, initially via current phone and cable lines, eventually replaced by fiber optics. Except, of course, in Georgetown, where waxed string will be stretched between tomato soup cans. But, I digress.

The internet connection will come into the home and go directly to a central computer, which will store the incoming purchases and already collected music and movies. The satellite/digital cable TV line will also connect to the central computer to provide television to the computer’s built-in video recorder. The central computer is hooked up to the home’s high-speed (twice as fast as today’s 802.11g standard) wireless network, so it doesn’t have to “live” anywhere near the family television(s).

A small box will sit next to the TV(s). There’ll be plenty of room there, as the VCR, DVD player, and TiVo boxes will be at Goodwill.

This small box (generally referred to as a “set top box”, which is a misnomer because it doesn’t actually sit on top of the TV set) will contain a wireless antenna tuned into the blazingly fast home network. It will also offer wired network access through a gigabit Ethernet port. Gigabit Ethernet (1000 megabits per second) is theoretically ten times faster than what most people use today. The set top box will connect to the TV’s audio and video inputs.

Seated on the comfortable sofa, viewers can access all their media through a simple remote control that manages a menu-based interface, delivered wired or wirelessly right to the TV.

You’ll also be able to purchase digital media right from the sofa. In the time it takes to make popcorn, rustle up some drinks, turn out the lights, and get settled in, the purchased movie will be ready to view, even though it may not be completely downloaded.

I can envision a two-tiered price scheme. Perhaps $4 to “rent” a movie, which could be downloaded and then viewed for a given amount of time before “self destructing”. (Good luck, Jim). $10 to $15 buys you a digital copy you can watch forever. Maybe even a third price for a version that could be burned onto a DVD.

Wait. That won’t work. I forgot. There won’t be any DVDs. Sorry.

© 2006 Peter F. Zimowski