As I see it, there are three immutable laws of tech journalism. These irrefutable axioms include: (1) anything “revolutionary” you write about as “front page news” has already been eclipsed by something more “revolutionary”; (2) most of the products described as “revolutionary” are actually “evolutionary” – the “r” is supplied by the advertising agency; and, (3) as a tech writer you are required by Section XXIX, Paragraph 11, Sub-Paragraph iii of the Techno Geek Union (T.G.U., Local 34) Guidelines, to publish at least one article at this time of year containing predictions for the coming New Year.

And, since writers are required to look forward, writers are also required to look back and analyze, debunk, and defend their prognostications from the previous year. Therefore, in order to keep the union thugs off my back and retain my Techno Geek Union Card (the new millennium equivalent of the high school AudioVisual card – some of you had one, I know it), here’s a detailed analysis of last year’s picks and some hopeful predictions for 2007.

Here’s what I got wrong for 2006. No widespread release of Windows Vista – that’ll happen here in a about a month. Actually, Microsoft has shipped business and enterprise versions of Vista to companies with the intestinal fortitude to migrate immediately. OK, we’ll call this one half-right. I also predicted that Apple would release Mac OS 10.5 “Leopard” in 2006. Didn’t happen. However, Apple’s next Big Cat operating system should be let out of the bag sometime in the first calendar quarter of 2007.

Pretty good. Out of a dozen predictions, I only missed on two of them. Now, here’s what I got right.

I have to admit, some of these were “gimmies”. Like Apple’s quick and relatively painless transition to Intel processors, made easy by Rosetta, a remarkable transparent on-the-fly translator that enabled software not yet converted to the Intel architecture to run on the new Intel Macs. Apple also included their Front Row “fifteen foot interface” (meaning you can watch and control audio, photo and video media from your couch with a remote control) on all Macs, desktop and portable. Apple’s iTunes Store expanded to include movie sales, and besides accounting for over 75% of all online music sales, now controls 90% of movies purchased online.

Overall, I think I did pretty well for 2006. So, what will 2007 bring? In ten days Apple CEO Steve Jobs will take the stage at MacWorld Expo in San Francisco to start the New Year off with a bang. Here’s what I think he will announce.

He’ll outline continued strong music sales on the iTunes Store, and more major film studios signing on to sell their movies there. He’ll announce that higher-resolution content (perhaps even 720p HD) will be available online by the time Apple ships their “iTV” (not the final name) set-top box by the end of March. While some will be disappointed, we won’t see a new generation of iPod until the summer.

Jobs will then show more (if not all) of the new features in Apple’s next-generation operating system, called “Leopard”. He’ll then announce a shipping date, sometime in the first calendar quarter of 2007.

He’ll then unveil a new Mac Pro desktop computer sporting two quad-core Intel processors. Yes, that’s eight cores of screaming 64-bit power. A new line of Cinema Displays will be announced, each including the iSight webcam currently on Apple’s iMac and portable lines.

Finally, Jobs will demonstrate iLife ’07, which will have the ability to use Leopard’s 64-bit capabilities and cut through media like butter.

There’s one final thing he’ll probably announce. See the column next door for more details.

© 2006 Peter F. Zimowski